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瑞银:降准释放1.2万亿流动性

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月22日 12:05:49
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(  4月)(19日)(,央)(行)(决)(定)(,自)(2015年)(4月)(20日)(起)(下)(调)(各)(类)(存)(款)(类)(金)(融)(机)(构)(人)(民)(币)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(一)(个)(百)(分)(点)(。这)(是)(继)(2月)(4日)(首)(次)(降)(准)(50个)(基)(点)(后)(,央)(行)(再)(次)(降)(准)(,使)(得)(银)(行)(体)(系)(存)(准)(率)(平)(均)(水)(平)(由)(此)(前)(的)(19%进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(至)(18%。
  与)(此)(同)(时)(,为)(加)(大)(对)(小)(微)(企)(业)(、“三)(农)(”以)(及)(重)(大)(水)(利)(工)(程)(建)(设)(等)(的)(定)(向)(支)(持)(,央)(行)(还)(对)(农)(信)(社)(、村)(镇)(银)(行)(、农)(村)(合)(作)(银)(行)(、农)(业)(发)(展)(银)(行)(和)(符)(合)(条)(件)(的)(商)(业)(银)(行)(额)(外)(降)(准)(。瑞)(银)(估)(计)(此)(次)(降)(准)(将)(直)(接)(释)(放)(1.2万)(亿)(左)(右)(的)(流)(动)(性)(。
  基)(础)(货)(币)(增)(速)(堪)(忧)(应)(当)(是)(此)(次)(降)(准)(最)(直)(接)(的)(催)(化)(剂)(。
  虽)(然)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(近)(期)(已)(开)(始)(下)(行)((如)(7天)(回)(购)(利)(率)(由)(2月)(底)(的)(最)(高)(4.9%降)(至)(目)(前)(的)(3%以)(内)(),但)(基)(础)(货)(币)(增)(速)(正)(面)(临)(着)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(收)(缩)(带)(来)(的)(越)(来)(越)(大)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(。央)(行)(披)(露)(其)(一)(季)(度)(外)(汇)(资)(产)(显)(著)(收)(缩)(了)(2521亿)(人)(民)(币)(、远)(超)(去)(年)(四)(季)(度)(1337亿)(的)(跌)(幅)(,与)(去)(年)(同)(期)(7879亿)(的)(大)(幅)(增)(加)(形)(成)(鲜)(明)(对)(比)(。尽)(管)(央)(行)(通)(过)(逆)(回)(购)(、SLF和)(MLF加)(大)(了)(流)(动)(性)(注)(入)(力)(度)(、一)(季)(度)(净)(投)(放)(了)(4900亿)(人)(民)(币)(,但)(流)(动)(性)(操)(作)(与)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(波)(动)(合)(计)(后)(对)(基)(础)(货)(币)(的)(净)(贡)(献)(仅)(为)(2379亿)(,远)(小)(于)(去)(年)(同)(期)(的)(4139亿)(。换)(言)(之)(,央)(行)(的)(流)(动)(性)(操)(作)(无)(法)(完)(全)(抵)(消)(外)(汇)(流)(出)(对)(基)(础)(货)(币)(的)(拖)(累)(。因)(此)(,基)(础)(货)(币)(同)(比)(增)(速)(由)(去)(年)(四)(季)(度)(的)(8%下)(滑)(至)(1~2月)(的)(4.5%、创)(多)(年)(来)(新)(低)((季)(调)(后)(环)(比)(增)(速)(也)(同)(样)(大)(幅)(滑)(坡)(),且)(3、4月)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(,进)(而)(拖)(累)(了)(广)(义)(货)(币)(增)(速)(。央)(行)(明)(确)(指)(出)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(同)(比)(明)(显)(少)(增)(是)(今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(M2增)(速)(回)(落)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。鉴)(于)(此)(,包)(括)(降)(准)(在)(内)(的)(更)(强)(有)(力)(的)(举)(措)(势)(在)(必)(行)(。
  此)(次)(大)(幅)(降)(准)(验)(证)(了)(央)(行)(保)(证)(银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(充)(裕)(、基)(础)(货)(币)(平)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(宽)(松)(立)(场)(。瑞)(银)(预)(计)(未)(来)(几)(个)(月)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(将)(进)(一)(步)(下)(行)(,基)(础)(货)(币)(增)(速)(则)(有)(望)(初)(步)(企)(稳)(。如)(我)(们)(此)(前)(所)(指)(出)(的)(,降)(准)(不)(仅)(可)(以)(提)(振)(市)(场)(和)(企)(业)(信)(心)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(可)(以)(防)(止)(货)(币)(信)(贷)(条)(件)(被)(动)(收)(紧)(,从)(而)(抑)(制)(金)(融)(风)(险)(、保)(证)(金)(融)(稳)(定)(。
  朝)(前)(看)(,作)(为)(一)(季)(度)(增)(长)(乏)(力)(的)(政)(策)(应)(对)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(未)(来)(1~2个)(月)(还)(将)(出)(台)(更)(多)(的)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(措)(施)(,包)(括)(降)(息)(、扩)(大)(PSL、进)(一)(步)(松)(绑)(人)(民)(币)(贷)(款)(额)(度)(和)(其)(他)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(限)(制)(。瑞)(银)(预)(计)(年)(内)(可)(能)(还)(会)(有)(一)(次)(幅)(度)(50个)(基)(点)(的)(降)(准)(,从)(而)(与)(其)(他)(流)(动)(性)(操)(作)((公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(、SLF、MLF、PSL)一)(道)(抵)(消)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(收)(缩)(、保)(证)(基)(础)(货)(币)(和)(M2平)(稳)(适)(度)(增)(长)(。下)(次)(降)(准)(的)(具)(体)(时)(点)(将)(视)(基)(础)(货)(币)(增)(长)(形)(势)(和)(国)(内)(流)(动)(性)(条)(件)(而)(定)(,因)(此)(间)(接)(取)(决)(于)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(的)(波)(动)(。瑞)(银)(当)(前)(的)(预)(测)(已)(经)(考)(虑)(了)(全)(年)(分)(别)(降)(准)(、降)(息)(2~3次)(,因)(此)(维)(持)(2015年)(GDP增)(长)(6.8%的)(预)(测)(不)(变)(。
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