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北京楼市结构性短缺:买家愿多花几万希望摇上号

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月22日 11:04:49
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(  本)(报)(记)(者)(张)(敏)(北)(京)(报)(道)(
  楼)(市)(“生)(态)(景)(象)(”
  楼)(市)(是)(今)(年)(以)(来)(最)(热)(门)(的)(话)(题)(,一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(在)(去)(库)(存)(和)(信)(贷)(支)(持)(下)(,成)(交)(量)(上)(升)(明)(显)(,随)(之)(而)(来)(的)(则)(是)(供)(需)(出)(现)(变)(化)(,例)(如)(北)(京)(,近)(期)(就)(出)(现)(购)(房)(者)(需)(求)(明)(显)(上)(升)(,难)(以)(购)(到)(合)(心)(意)(的)(房)(子)(,这)(背)(后)(也)(有)(由)(于)(高)(价)(地)(导)(致)(楼)(盘)(“高)(端)(化)(”,从)(而)(出)(现)(市)(场)(结)(构)(性)(问)(题)(。同)(时)(,地)(价)(的)(上)(涨)(也)(导)(致)(企)(业)(出)(现)(经)(营)(性)(困)(境)(,增)(收)(不)(增)(利)(,这)(也)(是)(摆)(在)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(一)(道)(难)(题)(。走)(出)(去)(或)(许)(是)(一)(个)(选)(择)(,近)(日)(万)(科)(就)(收)(购)(了)(伦)(敦)(写)(字)(楼)(,不)(过)(,房)(企)(走)(出)(去)(也)(需)(要)(注)(意)(相)(关)(的)(风)(险)(。
  导)(读)(
  对)(于)(供)(应)(端)(的)(缺)(口)(,多)(数)(受)(访)(者)(认)(为)(,仍)(然)(需)(要)(时)(间)(来)(进)(行)(弥)(补)(。短)(期)(的)(契)(机)(在)(于)(,传)(统)(的)(“金)(九)(银)(十)(”即)(将)(到)(来)(,有)(业)(绩)(需)(求)(的)(房)(企)(,或)(将)(在)(此)(时)(选)(择)(加)(快)(供)(应)(节)(奏)(。
  “那)(个)(项)(目)(排)(号)(的)(人)(很)(多)(,光)(是)(关)(系)(户)(,比)(例)(就)(达)(到)(1:3。”8月)(中)(旬)(,程)(女)(士)(看)(中)(北)(京)(北)(五)(环)(外)(一)(个)(即)(将)(开)(盘)(的)(新)(房)(项)(目)(,由)(于)(担)(心)(排)(号)(的)(人)(太)(多)(,便)(托)(相)(熟)(的)(朋)(友)(向)(开)(发)(商)(询)(问)(,能)(否)(通)(过)(运)(作)(,保)(证)(在)(开)(盘)(时)(买)(到)(一)(套)(。几)(天)(后)(,朋)(友)(给)(出)(了)(上)(述)(回)(复)(。
  这)(让)(程)(女)(士)(一)(筹)(莫)(展)(。在)(此)(之)(前)(,她)(看)(了)(四)(个)(类)(似)(的)(项)(目)(,面)(临)(的)(情)(况)(相)(当)(一)(致)(:价)(格)(偏)(高)(,排)(队)(人)(多)(。
  8月)(以)(来)(,北)(京)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(忽)(然)(变)(得)(紧)(缺)(起)(来)(。一)(些)(新)(房)(项)(目)(的)(排)(号)(数)(量)(比)(推)(盘)(量)(高)(出)(一)(倍)(,甚)(至)(更)(多)(。二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(价)(格)(也)(出)(现)(上)(涨)(,在)(一)(些)(热)(门)(区)(域)(,业)(主)(惜)(售)(和)(坐)(地)(起)(价)(的)(情)(况)(已)(经)(出)(现)(。
  在)(这)(背)(后)(,是)(一)(个)(略)(显)(畸)(形)(的)(市)(场)(。土)(地)(价)(格)(的)(偏)(高)(,使)(北)(京)(楼)(市)(出)(现)(明)(显)(的)(高)(端)(化)(现)(象)(,这)(不)(仅)(放)(慢)(了)(市)(场)(整)(体)(供)(应)(节)(奏)(,也)(使)(得)(刚)(需)(和)(改)(善)(型)(产)(品)(变)(得)(稀)(缺)(。而)(市)(场)(需)(求)(中)(的)(主)(力)(,恰)(恰)(是)(这)(类)(购)(房)(者)(。
  同)(样)(不)(能)(忽)(略)(的)(,还)(有)(另)(外)(几)(个)(大)(背)(景)(。房)(企)(在)(经)(历)(了)(“丰)(收)(”的)(上)(半)(年)(后)(,从)(追)(求)(规)(模)(转)(向)(追)(求)(利)(润)(;信)(贷)(宽)(松)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,投)(资)(渠)(道)(缺)(乏)(的)(现)(状)(没)(有)(改)(变)(;追)(涨)(心)(态)(出)(现)(……这)(一)(系)(列)(偶)(发)(或)(必)(然)(的)(因)(素)(,共)(同)(促)(成)(了)(这)(轮)(非)(理)(性)(的)(小)(高)(潮)(诞)(生)(。
  “稀)(缺)(”的)(房)(号)(
  房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(变)(化)(,从)(一)(个)(侧)(面)(能)(很)(好)(地)(反)(映)(出)(。石)(景)(山)(区)(某)(在)(售)(项)(目)(负)(责)(人)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(表)(示)(,市)(场)(不)(太)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,很)(多)(买)(房)(人)(通)(过)(各)(种)(关)(系)(来)(询)(问)(,寻)(求)(打)(折)(;市)(场)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,这)(些)(“关)(系)(户)(”只)(求)(能)(够)(买)(到)(房)(,并)(不)(关)(心)(价)(格)(。
  该)(人)(士)(有)(着)(近)(10年)(的)(操)(盘)(经)(验)(,在)(他)(看)(来)(,今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(市)(场)(最)(火)(的)(时)(候)(,似)(乎)(还)(没)(有)(如)(此)(。反)(而)(是)(最)(近)(,“为)(了)(保)(证)(摇)(上)(号)(,有)(些)(人)(愿)(意)(多)(出)(几)(万)(块)(钱)(”。
  从)(表)(面)(上)(看)(,这)(种)(现)(象)(并)(非)(毫)(无)(由)(来)(。此)(前)(有)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(称)(,8月)(27日)(,门)(头)(沟)(区)(的)(“金)(地)(华)(晨)(”项)(目)(摇)(号)(,情)(景)(是)(“几)(百)(号)(人)(争)(一)(百)(套)(房)(子)(”。同)(日)(,昌)(平)(区)(的)(“万)(科)(翡)(翠)(公)(园)(”截)(至)(排)(日)(,有)(购)(房)(者)(因)(未)(能)(排)(上)(号)(而)(与)(销)(售)(人)(员)(争)(论)(。
  这)(种)(情)(绪)(似)(乎)(已)(传)(染)(到)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(。链)(家)(地)(产)(青)(年)(路)(某)(门)(店)(经)(纪)(人)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(表)(示)(,该)(区)(域)(的)(一)(些)(优)(质)(小)(区)(,房)(源)(和)(购)(房)(者)(的)(比)(例)(多)(在)(1:5以)(上)(,有)(些)(小)(区)(根)(本)(没)(有)(房)(源)(。由)(于)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(较)(快)(,业)(主)(有)(着)(明)(显)(的)(惜)(售)(心)(态)(,部)(分)(业)(主)(坐)(地)(涨)(价)(。
  链)(家)(研)(究)(院)(的)(报)(告)(指)(出)(,今)(年)(8月)(,“房)(源)(不)(足)(”、“资)(产)(配)(置)(荒)(”、“业)(主)(强)(势)(”是)(北)(京)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(上)(的)(热)(词)(。在)(某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(,8月)(的)(市)(场)(表)(现)(比)(3月)((市)(场)(高)(点)()更)(激)(进)(,成)(交)(价)(格)(呈)(“跳)(涨)(”态)(势)(,8月)(第)(四)(周)((8月)(22日)(到)(28日)()的)(成)(交)(均)(价)(为)(49102元)(/平)(方)(米)(。
  对)(于)(房)(源)(的)(稀)(缺)(程)(度)(,该)(机)(构)(指)(出)(,8月)(第)(四)(周)(新)(增)(客)(源)(/新)(增)(房)(源)(为)(5.19,每)(套)(新)(增)(房)(源)(对)(应)(着)(5.19个)(需)(求)(。
  受)(此)(影)(响)(,业)(主)(表)(现)(十)(分)(强)(势)(。8月)(第)(四)(周)(,北)(京)(新)(增)(二)(手)(房)(源)(挂)(牌)(价)(为)(51666元)(/平)(方)(米)(。大)(多)(数)(进)(行)(了)(调)(价)(,且)(在)(调)(价)(中)(,涨)(价)(占)(比)(高)(达)(80.2%。短)(短)(两)(个)(月)(的)(时)(间)(,增)(加)(了)(30多)(个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  相)(比)(之)(下)(,为)(了)(在)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(市)(场)(中)(控)(制)(购)(房)(成)(本)(,客)(户)(不)(得)(不)(加)(速)(决)(策)(,平)(均)(周)(度)(看)(房)(量)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,成)(交)(周)(期)(明)(显)(缩)(短)(,成)(交)(量)(持)(续)(增)(加)(。
  供)(应)(骤)(降)(的)(逻)(辑)(
  今)(年)(以)(来)(,北)(京)(房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(规)(模)(不)(断)(攀)(高)(,到)(4月)(达)(到)(成)(交)(高)(点)(,随)(后)(的)(5月)(至)(7月)(,又)(因)(市)(场)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(逐)(渐)(下)(滑)(。到)(了)(8月)(,市)(场)(却)(出)(现)(“紧)(缺)(”的)(表)(象)(,令)(业)(界)(始)(料)(未)(及)(。
  亚)(豪)(机)(构)(研)(究)(总)(监)(郭)(毅)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(表)(示)(,“抢)(房)(”的)(现)(象)(不)(太)(正)(常)(,其)(根)(本)(原)(因)(是)(市)(场)(供)(需)(关)(系)(发)(生)(了)(变)(化)(。
  亚)(豪)(机)(构)(的)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(8月)(,北)(京)(商)(品)(房)(新)(增)(供)(应)(套)(数)(为)(4191套)(,环)(比)(骤)(降)(56.0%,创)(最)(近)(6个)(月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(。若)(剔)(除)(商)(住)(类)(项)(目)(,8月)(纯)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(供)(应)(2011套)(,环)(比)(下)(降)(39.0%,为)(最)(近)(5个)(月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(点)(。
  相)(比)(之)(下)(,成)(交)(量)(的)(变)(化)(并)(不)(剧)(烈)(。上)(述)(机)(构)(的)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,8月)(北)(京)(成)(交)(商)(品)(房)(9327套)(,环)(比)(下)(降)(21.4%;剔)(除)(商)(住)(类)(项)(目)(后)(,纯)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(成)(交)(下)(降)(16.4%。
  梳)(理)(历)(史)(数)(据)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(,北)(京)(新)(房)(成)(交)(套)(数)(始)(终)(高)(于)(新)(增)(供)(应)(套)(数)(,这)(造)(成)(新)(房)(库)(存)(不)(断)(减)(少)(,如)(今)(的)(去)(化)(周)(期)(已)(不)(足)(8个)(月)(。8月)(以)(来)(,新)(房)(供)(应)(量)(骤)(减)(,使)(得)(供)(应)(不)(足)(的)(局)(面)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(。
  对)(于)(供)(应)(骤)(减)(的)(原)(因)(,郭)(毅)(指)(出)(,上)(半)(年)(房)(企)(完)(成)(销)(售)(任)(务)(情)(况)(较)(好)(,在)(下)(半)(年)(的)(策)(略)(中)(,更)(加)(注)(重)(追)(求)(利)(润)(。因)(此)(,放)(缓)(销)(售)(节)(奏)(,几)(乎)(成)(为)(企)(业)(共)(同)(的)(选)(择)(。
  “总)(部)(要)(求)(我)(们)(不)(要)(太)(快)(把)(房)(子)(卖)(完)(,一)(是)(损)(失)(利)(润)(,二)(是)(很)(难)(再)(拿)(到)(地)(。”上)(述)(项)(目)(负)(责)(人)(表)(示)(。
  在)(京)(津)(冀)(协)(同)(发)(展)(战)(略)(和)(非)(核)(心)(功)(能)(疏)(解)(的)(指)(导)(思)(想)(下)(,近)(年)(来)(,北)(京)(房)(地)(产)(土)(地)(供)(应)(量)(逐)(年)(减)(少)(,供)(应)(土)(地)(的)(位)(置)(趋)(于)(“边)(缘)(化)(”。根)(据)(北)(京)(市)(国)(土)(局)(的)(数)(据)(,今)(年)(北)(京)(仅)(供)(应)(了)(7宗)(住)(宅)(用)(地)(。大)(多)(数)(企)(业)(面)(临)(“拿)(地)(无)(门)(”的)(局)(面)(,只)(能)(放)(缓)(项)(目)(的)(销)(售)(节)(奏)(。
  这)(还)(不)(是)(最)(关)(键)(的)(。郭)(毅)(说)(,由)(于)(土)(地)(供)(应)(不)(足)(,土)(地)(价)(格)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(,北)(京)(商)(品)(房)(市)(场)(出)(现)(明)(显)(的)(“高)(端)(化)(”趋)(势)(。相)(比)(之)(下)(,刚)(需)(和)(改)(善)(产)(品)(的)(供)(应)(出)(现)(结)(构)(性)(缺)(口)(。而)(在)(需)(求)(端)(,这)(部)(分)(购)(房)(者)(恰)(恰)(是)(市)(场)(的)(主)(力)(。
  因)(此)(,郭)(毅)(指)(出)(,“不)(是)(所)(有)(的)(项)(目)(都)(在)(抢)(房)(,真)(正)(稀)(缺)(的)(是)(北)(京)(最)(后)(一)(批)(非)(地)(王)(项)(目)(。”这)(部)(分)(新)(房)(项)(目)(的)(总)(价)(在)(1000万)(元)(以)(下)(,户)(型)(、设)(计)(等)(品)(质)(上)(佳)(,于)(是)(成)(为)(市)(场)(的)(首)(选)(。但)(因)(为)(供)(应)(量)(太)(少)(,才)(引)(发)(“抢)(房)(”现)(象)(。
  二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(的)(升)(温)(,也)(是)(基)(于)(类)(似)(的)(逻)(辑)(。在)(新)(房)(供)(应)(不)(足)(、位)(置)(偏)(远)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,改)(善)(型)(购)(房)(者)(倾)(向)(于)(通)(过)(存)(量)(房)(来)(满)(足)(需)(求)(,于)(是)(大)(量)(涌)(入)(存)(量)(市)(场)(,并)(带)(来)(一)(系)(列)(的)(连)(锁)(反)(应)(。
  改)(善)(需)(求)(抬)(头)(与)(投)(资)(心)(态)(
  与)(供)(应)(端)(类)(似)(,需)(求)(方)(的)(结)(构)(也)(在)(发)(生)(变)(化)(。
  多)(家)(机)(构)(的)(分)(析)(报)(告)(指)(出)(,在)(经)(历)(过)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(化)(改)(革)(的)(初)(级)(阶)(段)(后)(,如)(今)(市)(场)(中)(的)(改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(正)(在)(抬)(头)(,并)(占)(据)(越)(来)(越)(大)(的)(比)(例)(。这)(部)(分)(需)(求)(的)(支)(付)(能)(力)(强)(,对)(房)(屋)(的)(品)(质)(要)(求)(更)(高)(。
  在)(北)(京)(本)(轮)(行)(情)(中)(,改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(被)(认)(为)(是)(一)(股)(重)(要)(力)(量)(,与)(改)(善)(型)(住)(宅)(供)(应)(短)(缺)(形)(成)(鲜)(明)(的)(对)(照)(。
  数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(7月)(,北)(京)(90平)(方)(米)(及)(以)(下)(新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(的)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(10.8%,90-144平)(方)(米)(住)(宅)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(25%,144平)(方)(米)(以)(上)(住)(宅)(价)(格)(涨)(幅)(达)(到)(29.9%。
  经)(济)(增)(长)(乏)(力)(、投)(资)(渠)(道)(缺)(乏)(的)(现)(实)(,也)(对)(需)(求)(方)(的)(心)(态)(产)(生)(影)(响)(。程)(女)(士)(坦)(言)(,此)(次)(买)(房)(的)(目)(的)(,除)(了)(给)(父)(母)(在)(京)(准)(备)(一)(个)(居)(所)(,还)(担)(心)(自)(己)(手)(上)(的)(现)(金)(贬)(值)(。近)(期)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(消)(息)(,更)(让)(她)(急)(于)(出)(手)(。
  郭)(毅)(表)(示)(,从)(配)(置)(资)(产)(的)(角)(度)(看)(,普)(通)(人)(的)(资)(产)(配)(置)(渠)(道)(不)(足)(,房)(地)(产)(仍)(然)(是)(最)(简)(单)(和)(有)(效)(的)(渠)(道)(。一)(旦)(股)(市)(不)(振)(,房)(价)(上)(涨)(,买)(房)(就)(成)(为)(资)(金)(避)(险)(的)(首)(选)(。
  多)(数)(受)(访)(者)(指)(出)(,很)(难)(准)(确)(计)(算)(出)(北)(京)(市)(场)(中)(的)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(比)(例)(,但)(一)(旦)(具)(有)(资)(金)(保)(值)(的)(功)(能)(,就)(不)(可)(避)(免)(地)(带)(有)(投)(资)(属)(性)(。后)(者)(的)(追)(涨)(心)(态)(较)(为)(明)(显)(,也)(容)(易)(受)(到)(外)(界)(信)(息)(的)(影)(响)(。
  链)(家)(研)(究)(院)(总)(结)(了)(8月)(北)(京)(二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(升)(温)(的)(逻)(辑)(链)(条)(,前)(半)(部)(分)(为)(“前)(期)(楼)(市)(热)(潮)(消)(耗)(大)(量)(房)(源)(-房)(源)(明)(显)(不)(足)(-股)(、汇)(、债)(市)(表)(现)(欠)(佳)(-房)(产)(作)(为)(主)(要)(的)(资)(产)(配)(置)(标)(的)(倍)(受)(追)(捧)(-供)(需)(矛)(盾)(趋)(紧)(-挂)(牌)(均)(价)(走)(高)(”,体)(现)(出)(大)(环)(境)(的)(影)(响)(。
  后)(半)(部)(分)(为)(“业)(主)(强)(势)(调)(价)((涨)(价)()-客)(户)(被)(迫)(接)(受)(价)(格)(-均)(价)(继)(续)(走)(高)(-为)(控)(制)(成)(本)(客)(户)(缩)(短)(决)(策)(周)(期)(、减)(少)(看)(房)(数)(量)(-去)(化)(加)(速)(、库)(存)(更)(加)(不)(足)(-供)(需)(矛)(盾)(趋)(紧)(”,体)(现)(出)(追)(涨)(心)(态)(对)(市)(场)(波)(动)(的)(强)(化)(作)(用)(。
  郭)(毅)(则)(对)(后)(市)(持)(乐)(观)(态)(度)(,理)(由)(在)(于)(,流)(动)(性)(过)(剩)(的)(局)(面)(正)(在)(改)(善)(。一)(方)(面)(,7月)(新)(增)(人)(民)(币)(贷)(款)(规)(模)(已)(经)(大)(幅)(降)(低)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,部)(分)(银)(行)(收)(紧)(了)(房)(地)(产)(贷)(款)(的)(发)(放)(。因)(此)(,需)(求)(端)(的)(非)(理)(性)(恐)(慌)(或)(将)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(。
  但)(对)(于)(供)(应)(端)(的)(缺)(口)(,多)(数)(受)(访)(者)(认)(为)(,仍)(然)(需)(要)(时)(间)(来)(进)(行)(弥)(补)(。短)(期)(的)(契)(机)(在)(于)(,传)(统)(的)(“金)(九)(银)(十)(”即)(将)(到)(来)(,有)(业)(绩)(需)(求)(的)(房)(企)(,或)(将)(在)(此)(时)(选)(择)(加)(快)(供)(应)(节)(奏)(。
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